No deal Brexit risks wiping 3.5% off GDP, IMF warns
Should the UK leave the European Union this Friday without a deal it can expect a period of unprecedented growth and prosperity. Only joking.
Actually, according to the jolly old International Monetary Fund (IMF) the country is looking at losing least 2-3 years of normal growth between now and the end of 2021, losing about 3.5% of its GDP in the process.
And that’s in a kind of best case no deal scenario, one without border delays and with minimal financial market turmoil – so things can potentially be far worse than the IMF’s grim forecast.
The IMF said: ‘The increase in trade barriers has an immediate negative impact on UK foreign and domestic demand.
‘The downward revisions…reflect the negative effect of prolonged uncertainty about the Brexit outcome, only partially offset by the positive impact from fiscal stimulus announced in the 2019 budget.’
And the hated EU would also take a blow from no deal: the IMF reckons the trading bloc is facing an estimated 0.5% hit to its GDP if Theresa May can’t pull some kind of miracle out of the ether by Friday.
So, plenty to look forward to.